Preview: "$33 trillion in debt matures in 2026. How will Bitcoin respond to macro forces and credit markets that may impact its future as much as halvings once did?"
Key takeaways:
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$33 trillion in debt will mature across advanced economies in 2026, forming a refinancing wall that could drain liquidity and weigh on risk-on assets as borrowing costs remain high.
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Global liquidity is projected to peak in late 2025, historically a precursor to tighter markets.
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Secular bull markets since WWII have lasted 18 to 19 years; the current one, starting in 2009, may stretch into 2028 despite mid-cycle turbulence.
A growing number of crypto market experts argue that the familiar four-year Bitcoin cycle is gone. They point to several factors: 95% of Bitcoin is already mined, roughly 1 million BTC now sits in corporate treasuries, and macroeconomic and regulatory forces increasingly shape price dynamics.
Whether the halving cycle has disappeared entirely or simply made room for other price drivers, Bitcoin is no longer a world apart. It moves with traditional finance, where cycles in liquidity, refinancing, and longer-term valuations set the tone. Understanding these TradFi rhythms could be as crucial for Bitcoin’s future as its own halving cycle.
The refinancing cycle: A 2026 stress test
Global debt reached about $315 trillion in Q1 2024, according to the Institute of International Finance. With an average maturity of seven years, roughly $50 trillion in obligations must be rolled over each year, points out the Financial Times.
The real test comes in 2026, when the annual “maturity wall” in advanced economies will climb nearly 20%, topping $33 trillion — almost three times these economies’ yearly capital expenditures. Refinancing such volumes at today’s higher rates could strain governments and corporations alike, especially those with weaker credit profiles.
This maturity wall could be a real stress test for risk-on assets — equities, high-yield bonds, emerging-market debt and crypto. Massive refinancing needs will absorb market liquidity, leaving less room for riskier assets.
With tight funding conditions (even if the Fed starts cutting rates this fall, they will remain well above 2010–2021 levels when much of this debt was issued), this sets up a squeeze where capital costs rise, credit spreads widen and investors demand higher risk premiums.
Risk-on assets, which depend heavily on abundant liquidity and low funding costs, could face valuation pressure, reduced inflows and sharper volatility as refinancing demand crowds out marginal borrowers.
For Bitcoin, this situation will correspond to the final leg of its four-year cycle — the bear market. Without expanding global liquidity significantly (FT analysts argue that an 8%–10% increase is now required annually to keep the system stable), the refinancing wall could have serious consequences.
Could liquidity cycles tighten in 2026?
For now, global liquidity keeps growing. M2 across the four largest central banks rose 7% year-to-date, reaching $95 trillion in June 2025. A broader measure from economist Michael Howell (counting short-term credit liabilities plus household and corporate cash) hit $182.8 trillion in Q2 2025, up $11.4 trillion since end-2024 and about 1.6 times global GDP.
However, liquidity also moves in cycles, as shown by Howell’s global liquidity index. It bottomed in December 2022 and now points to a peak by late 2025. Historically, peaks in liquidity often precede volatility: As funding tightens afterward, money market rates can spike and investors start dumping risk-on assets.
US bank reserves tell a similar story. At $3.2 trillion, reserves remain “abundant,” according to the New York Fed, though balance-sheet reductions aim to bring them down to a merely “ample” level.
From this perspective, if liquidity begins contracting in 2026, Bitcoin would likely feel the impact, deepening any ongoing bear market. Yet if mounting debt pressures force central banks to reverse course and inject liquidity — overriding Howell’s projected liquidity cycle — the resulting expansion could instead provide Bitcoin with a fresh tailwind.
Related: BTC bull run over at $111K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Secular trends could come to a head in 2028
Beyond liquidity and refinancing, longer-term market cycles matter too. The Kobeissi Letter, using the CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) model, shows the current secular bull market began in 2009 and has lasted 16 years so far. The 1982–2000 cycle gained 114% before ending in the dot-com crash, while the 1949–1968 run saw smaller peaks and deeper pullbacks near the end.
According to the analysts, today’s market resembles the 1960s pattern more than the late-1990s blow-off. CAPE models suggest returns could accelerate a bit further before this secular wave ends, which could happen somewhere in 2028, if the past cycles, lasting 19 and 18 years, are any indication. They add,
“This bull run is incredibly strong.”
For Bitcoin, this could mean an easier bear market in 2026 and an enthusiastic recovery in 2027 and 2028, the year of the new halving.
Ultimately, no single metric defines the future. Debt loads, liquidity cycles, policy shifts, innovation and investor psychology all pull the economy in different directions. Markets rise and fall on the interplay of these forces rather than any one factor alone. For Bitcoin too, the path ahead will be shaped not just by halvings or liquidity peaks, but by the full complexity of the world it now inhabits.
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