Preview: "Bitcoin growth models project $200,000 by 2025 and up to $1.5 million by 2035, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq in long-term returns."
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s long-term CAGR of 42.5% outpaces the Nasdaq and gold, but is projected to drop to 30% by 2030.
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The power-law and quantile models keep BTC’s Q4 2025 target between $150,000–$200,000, with $1.2million to $1.5 million possible by 2035.
The long-term growth of Bitcoin
remains exceptional, according to a recent Bitcoin Intelligence Report, noting that even in the context of other major assets, its trajectory stands out.
The report compared the Nasdaq’s 10-year rolling compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which typically sits in the mid-single to low-teens, with the latest decade delivering 16%. Gold has averaged 10.65% over the past decade, rising to 12.88% when adjusted for its 2% annual supply growth.
Meanwhile, the US M2 money supply has expanded at roughly 6% annually over the same period. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s modeled CAGR of 42.5% underscores its outsized performance.
The company’s power-law model, which has tracked Bitcoin with “unprecedented consistency” for 16 years, projects a gradual, adoption-driven deceleration toward 30% by 2030, still triple gold’s supply-adjusted growth rate.
“Bitcoin remains the cleanest barometer of global liquidity,” the report states, citing its smaller market size and role as a “liquidity sponge” in a structurally expansive monetary regime.
The report shows that the $114,000–$117,000 accumulation zone proved resilient, triggering a spot-led rebound to $122,000.
Related: Bitcoin institutional volume hits 75% on Coinbase in new BTC price signal
Bitcoin $200,000 target by Q4 remains on track
While the immediate resistance lies just above $130,000, the year-end target for Bitcoin remains close to $200,000. Its price projection combines the power-law approach with quantile analysis to track Bitcoin’s historical growth.
According to the model, the base trend for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 sits around $120,000. Factoring in the cyclical bull phase, the price could realistically climb to between $150,000 and $200,000. Looking further out, by 2035, the model anticipates Bitcoin could reach $1.2 million to $1.5 million, a forecast based on exponential, network-like growth rather than speculative hype.
The chart shows that every 50% increase in Bitcoin’s age has historically driven about a 10x jump in price, a pattern the model has tracked with strong accuracy (R² > 0.95). This data-backed trend, paired with solid onchain strength and supportive macroeconomic conditions (future interest rate cuts), suggests the best may still be ahead for Bitcoin in 2025.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan indicates a similar outcome. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Hougan said that Bitcoin’s supply-demand balance is increasingly skewed toward demand, with miners producing fewer coins than publicly traded companies and ETFs are collectively buying. In May, Hougan said,
“I think eventually that will exhaust sellers at the $100,000 level where we have been stuck, and I think the next stopping point above that is $200,000.”
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