Preview: "Bitcoin getting to $340,000 this cycle is a "very big ask," but over the past five years, BTC has already won the macro asset returns game, research shows."
Key points:
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Bitcoin will beat its prior cycle’s gains for the first time if it makes it to $340,000 this bull market.
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While a “very big ask,” such a feat would make BTC the world’s second most valuable asset by market cap.
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BTC is already an outperformer among macro assets over the past five years.
Bitcoin
will make history if its price triples before the end of the current bull cycle.
In an X post Monday, macro trader and investor Jason Pizzino queried whether BTC/USD could beat its previous cycle gains of nearly 2,100%.
Bitcoin to $340,000 this cycle: A “very big ask”
Bitcoin is already up 700% versus its $15,600 bear market low in 2022, but those gains remain comparatively tame by historical standards.
In percentage terms, BTC price action has a long way to go until it matches even its previous bull market.
Between 2019 and 2021, BTC/USD delivered maximum gains of 2,089%. To do the same, Pizzino says, is a “very big ask” — price would need to hit a giant $340,000.
“If Bitcoin hits $340,000 this cycle, it would be the first time in its 16-year history that it has a greater return than the previous cycle. It is a very big ask, but many are asking if it’s possible,” he wrote.
“That is a $6.7 trillion market cap, less than a third of gold's market cap at roughly $23T, and it’d put BTC in second place as the most valuable asset in the world, behind gold.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin is already in the top five macro assets by market cap worldwide as of July 2025.
Bitcoin “remains in a league of its own”
In further findings, Pizzino saw an increasing positive correlation between Bitcoin and another macro asset class.
Related: BTC price to fill $117K CME gap? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
The 18-year real estate cycle, he argued, is starting to fit Bitcoin’s existing lifespan.
“Bitcoin and the 18-Year Cycle are going hand-in-hand for their first complete cycle together,” he summarized, calling the correlation a “superb love story.”
In gold terms, BTC put in current all-time highs in late 2024, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
A subsequent bull run on gold sent BTC/XAU down 40% before a rebound, with 1 BTC now worth around 36 ounces.
As Bitcoin JAN3 Financial, the financial services arm of Bitcoin adoption company JAN3 notes, the long-term view favors Bitcoin’s returns.
“Over the past 5 years, Bitcoin has easily outperformed all major asset classes with a staggering 58.2% CAGR,” it confirmed Monday, referring to the combined annual growth rate.
“The closest competitor, QQQ, delivered 16.28%, followed by SPY at 13.68% and gold (GLD) at 10.49%. Bitcoin remains in a league of its own.”
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