Preview: "Bitcoin buy signals may emerge from bond market stress, but whale investor activity and dormant coins raise short-term volatility risks."
Key takeaways:
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Bond market stress has historically aligned with Bitcoin cycle bottoms and could signal new buy opportunities.
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US debt surpassing $37 trillion and elevated 10-year yields point to macroeconomic pressures that may favor Bitcoin in Q4.
A buying opportunity in Bitcoin
may emerge before a strong rally in Q4, and the bond markets could play a key role.
According to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson, one of the most reliable indicators to watch is the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS). This measures the extra yield investors demand to hold risky corporate bonds over safe US Treasurys. When OAS spikes, it signals fear in credit markets. Historically, those stress points have often marked local bottoms for Bitcoin.
Currently, OAS remains relatively calm, suggesting markets haven’t fully priced in the next wave of stress. But if credit spreads widen in the coming quarter, a common outcome when liquidity tightens, it could set the stage for another Bitcoin accumulation phase.
The broader macro backdrop reinforces this view. The US national debt has surged past $37 trillion, requiring more than $2.6 billion in daily interest payments. A recent US credit downgrade reflects concern over this fiscal path. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.3%, up from 3.9% a year ago, raising borrowing costs across the economy.
Wedson believes this combination of fiscal stress and rising yields could eventually shake traditional markets, with Bitcoin benefiting as an alternative asset. “An aggressive bear market will happen sooner or later,” Wedson said. “But before it occurs, euphoria is the most likely scenario. I believe much of 2026 and onward will be very bad for the US economy.”
Related: Bitcoin price rising wedge breakdown: How low can BTC go?
Strategy buys $54 million in Bitcoin, but whales hint at deeper dips
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains steady, highlighted by Strategy’s latest purchase on Sunday. The company acquired 430 BTC for about $51.4 million at an average price of $119,666 per coin. This brings its total holdings to 629,376 BTC.
However, onchain data points to growing selling pressure among Bitcoin’s largest holders. Cointelegraph reported that the number of mega whale addresses holding over 10,000 BTC has dropped to its lowest level in 2025, with a consistent negative 30-day trend since mid-July. Similarly, whale wallets in the 1,000–10,000 BTC range have declined, suggesting profit-taking after recent highs.
Adding to market volatility, nearly 32,000 dormant BTC (3–5 years old), worth about $3.78 billion, was moved in a single transfer, the largest shift from this age band in over a year.
Together, these signals suggest that while institutional buyers continue to accumulate, broader whale activity and revived dormant supply may fuel short-term corrections, keeping volatility elevated.
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