Preview: "Bitcoin’s short-term path hinges on a $4.3 billion options expiry. Bulls are favored, but weak jobs data and doubts over AI profitability could add uncertainty."
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s $4.3 billion options expiry favors neutral-to-bullish bets, with a $175 million edge if prices stay above $113,000.
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Macroeconomic uncertainty, including weak US employment data and AI sector doubts, could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Bitcoin
surged past $114,000 mark on Thursday after a positive earnings report from Oracle Corporation (ORCL), a major player in artificial intelligence infrastructure. The move pushed Bitcoin to its highest price in more than two weeks, raising expectations for stronger bullish momentum ahead of the $4.3 billion BTC options expiry on Friday.
Put (sell) options dominate this week’s expiry, representing $2.35 billion in open interest compared with $1.93 billion in call (buy) contracts. Still, call options have gained an edge after Bitcoin’s price moved away from the $107,500 lows seen earlier in September. The current imbalance favoring put options is unusual in a market where crypto traders are typically optimistic.
Deribit remains the clear market leader, holding 75% of Bitcoin’s weekly expiry share, followed by OKX at 13%. Bybit and Binance account for roughly 5% each. Given Deribit’s dominance, its positioning offers the best signal to gauge whether Bitcoin can push beyond $120,000 in the short term.
Bearish or neutral positions appear poorly placed, as fewer than $125 million in put open interest has been set at $114,000 or higher on Deribit. In contrast, more than $300 million in call contracts would be activated if Bitcoin sustains levels above $113,000 through Friday’s expiry. This $175 million advantage for call buyers could provide the fuel needed for Bitcoin to extend its bullish trend.
US job market concerns and AI sustainability could limit Bitcoin’s upside
Oracle’s 36% share price surge on Wednesday was driven by expectations of stronger earnings after the company announced a $455 billion increase in future contracts. Later that day, The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI alone accounted for $300 billion of Oracle’s backlog, prompting concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven growth.
X user sam_mielke highlighted how Nvidia (NVDA) benefits from selling equipment to Oracle, generating recurring revenue even though Nvidia itself rents out the AI datacenter. The post suggested these companies may be engaging in a form of financial “cycling,” effectively converting capital expenditures into revenue.
Whether or not the criticism holds weight, recession fears could reinforce Bitcoin bulls’ confidence in reaching a new all-time high in 2025.
Traders’ optimism took a hit after Tuesday’s sharp negative revision in United States employment data. Bank of America equity analyst Ebrahim Poonawala warned that rising unemployment could weaken credit quality at large banks, according to Yahoo Finance. He noted, however, that credit losses have so far been “a non-event” throughout 2025.
Related: Crypto traders’ current fear won’t last long, analysts say
If Bitcoin holds $112,000 into Friday’s expiry, call options open interest will exceed put options by $50 million, supporting neutral-to-bullish strategies. But if the price falls below $111,000 at 8:00 am Friday, put options gain a $100 million advantage.
In the end, Bitcoin’s direction is likely to be decided at the final moment, with macroeconomic uncertainty playing the decisive role.
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