Bitcoin inter-exchange flow pulse turns bearish
According to onchain analyst Maartunn, Bitcoin’s inter-exchange flow pulse has turned negative, implying a decline in risk appetite for potential investors.
The inter-exchange flow pulse (IFP) indicator measures the BTC flows between spot and derivative markets. Based on historical data, more BTC is transferred from spot to derivatives markets whenever the market remains on an uptrend and traders feel confident in long positions.
Likewise, once prices attain a bit of weakness and form a bearish trend, BTC starts flowing out of futures markets and into spot exchanges as investors brace for a shakedown.
On Feb. 16, the indicator turned negative for the first time since Q3 2024, highlighting a possible bearish trend shift.
On a similar wavelength, Axel Adler Jr, a Bitcoin researcher, pointed out that the total amount of long positions liquidated in Bitcoin futures reached a two-year high. The analyst said the last time long liquidation dominance reached 25% was in January 2022, which inadvertently marked the beginning of a bear market, with BTC peaking just a couple of months earlier in November 2021.
However, the situation was not entirely out of hand yet for the bulls, as Adler added,
“At the moment, the market is responding adequately to this pressure, which essentially indicates strong demand during corrections. Buyers are actively "buying the dips," limiting the depth of Bitcoin's decline.”
Key Bitcoin price levels under $95,000
Bitcoin has consolidated between $98,000-$95,000 since Feb. 3 and the crypto asset has tested $95,000 support five times in two weeks. Continuous re-test of a support level fundamentally weakens the range since traders lose the conviction that the level can hold further. Therefore, the current probability of a daily close under $95,000 for the first time since Jan. 13 is significantly high.
The crypto asset will potentially target the liquidity between this range if support at $95,000 is lost. An immediate bullish reprise would be a sharp reversal from this range, which will indicate fresh bids being filled just below $90,000.
However, if buyers remain sidelined and prices consolidate near $90,000, BTC could potentially test the fair value cap between $81,699 and $85,160, formed during the initial “Trump Pump” rally.
Below this range, the daily CME gap remains between $77,000 and $80,000, which is BTC’s worst-case scenario, marking another 15% from its current price point.
0 Comments